Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has issued a cautious outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum, warning of a potential 19% correction amid ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Hayes attributed the risk of a decline to factors such as increased tariffs, stagnant credit markets, and weak job growth, particularly in the United States. He emphasized that the July 2025 non-farm payrolls report, which showed the creation of only 73,000 jobs, served as a key trigger for his bearish stance [1].
In response to the shifting market conditions, Hayes took action by selling over $13 million worth of Ethereum, Ethena, and PEPE to lock in profits. Post-transaction, his wallet holds $28.3 million in assets, with $22.95 million in USDC stablecoins. Hayes also pointed to sluggish credit growth in major economies as a drag on nominal GDP, further pressuring risky assets like cryptocurrencies [1].
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is already 7.7% below its July 14 all-time high of $123,000, while Ethereum has lost 12.5% following a recent rally above $3,900. These declines have reignited discussions about the possibility of a double-digit correction in the near term. Hayes specifically highlighted that if Bitcoin drops to $100,000, it would represent a significant pullback from current levels [1].
However, not all analysts share Hayes’s pessimism. Bloomberg expert Eric Balchunas noted that the market has become more stable since BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023, suggesting a shift away from sharp drawdowns [1]. Mitchell Askew of Blockware Solutions added that the era of parabolic rises and steep declines for Bitcoin is likely over [1].
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts reported a different trend, noting that large investors, or “whales,” are currently accumulating Bitcoin. This is in contrast to the 2021 market peak, which was preceded by a reduction in whale holdings. The current behavior suggests a more measured and long-term approach from institutional players [1].
The cryptocurrency market remains in a state of flux as investors weigh macroeconomic signals with structural changes in market dynamics and investor behavior.
Source: [1] Arthur Hayes Predicts Potential 19% Bitcoin Correction Amid Weak Employment Data (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688f68fc31f6e26bea1932d3/)
