Peter Brandt shorts bitcoin | ForkLog

Peter Brandt shorts bitcoin futures on a ‘megaphone’ pattern, but says he holds BTC long term.

A “megaphone” pattern has formed on the bitcoin chart—typically a harbinger of price declines, wrote technical analyst Peter Brandt.

Do others besides me find it a bit awkward intellectually/emotionally when you hold contrary positions in accounts designed to trade different systems/time frames?
As an investor I have owned Bitcoin for years
As a swing trader I am now short $BTC futures based on megaphone pic.twitter.com/bZZDwbypSh

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 30, 2025

On that basis, the expert opened a short position in bitcoin futures. He stressed that he believes in “digital gold” over the long term and continues to hold it in his portfolio.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency trades around $110,000, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

On October 30 bitcoin fell to $106,000. According to Santiment, this dented confidence in a near-term recovery. Many now expect a move below $100,000.

😨 Bitcoin’s dip to $107K Thursday has led to a high amount of sub-$100K $BTC price predictions. In this chart:

🟦 $50K-$100K Calls
🟥 $150K-$200K Calls

Markets move opposite to the crowd’s expectations, therefore a relief rally is probable while FUD is peaking like it is now. pic.twitter.com/slCuZALuE8

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 30, 2025

Fear and Greed Index stands at 29, signalling prevailing pessimism. The gauge fell five points in a day.

Earlier, Glassnode analysts pointed to the risk of a drop to $88,000. To avoid such an outcome, bitcoin needs to hold above $113,000, they said.

Santiment, however, says the market “often moves contrary to the crowd’s expectations”.

“The current peak in pessimism creates conditions for a relief rally—a classic case where maximum fear precedes a trend reversal,” the experts added. 

Why isn’t the market recovering?

On October 29 the Fed for the second meeting in a row cut its key rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4%. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, analysts mooted the start of a new bitcoin rally.

The next day, US President Donald Trump, whose decisions significantly influence the crypto market, announced lower tariffs on imports from China.

At the same time, the United States launched trading in spot exchange-traded funds based on a range of altcoins.

Yet neither bitcoin nor the broader crypto market reacted to the positive news. According to XWIN Research Japan, a key reason is weaker institutional demand.

Why the Market Fell Despite All the Good News

“The sell-off was not irrational. After weeks of exuberance, speculative momentum cooled. Institutional demand weakened, monetary clarity blurred, and geopolitics grew complicated.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/uDncPGyw48

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 31, 2025

The experts pointed to the Coinbase Premium Gap, which reflects price differences between Coinbase and other exchanges. The metric turned negative.

“This traditionally signals reduced buying activity from US institutional investors. Historically, a negative premium often precedes short-term market corrections,” XWIN Research Japan explained. 

Other factors include:

• no assurances of further rate cuts—Fed chair Jerome Powell is unsure the central bank will continue easing;
• ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—participants in US-China talks describe the arrangements as a “temporary truce”. 

Trader Miles Deutscher added that corporate treasuries have begun selling assets to stabilise NAV, adding pressure. Demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has also weakened.

He cited “Black Saturday” on October 11 as a key factor that undermined trust in the industry and deterred retail investors.

Even so, XWIN Research Japan called the current correction “normal”. The medium-term outlook, they said, is optimistic.

What next?

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe thinks bitcoin must clear $112,000 for a new rally and a potential new ATH.

#Bitcoin needs to break $112K and that’s the crucial level before a new ATH.

Mentioned it before, and it’s still valid.

I do think we’ll see a new ATH in November.

However, it did hit support. If this level is lost for Bitcoin, then we’re looking at a sweep of $103K or even… pic.twitter.com/XJQRo5CAvV

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 30, 2025

“At the same time, the asset did reach support. If bitcoin loses this level, the next target will be $103,000 or even lower,” he warned. 

Even so, van de Poppe expects “digital gold” to set a new all-time high in November.

Bitcoin is ending October in the red for the first time since 2018. As analyst Crypto Rover noted, the last time that happened the coin fell 36% in November.

Last time October closed red for Bitcoin, November saw a 36.57% drop.

Should we be worried this time? pic.twitter.com/WCm6FZuOZa

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) October 31, 2025

Investor Timothy Peterson disagreed. In his words, “a weak October means nothing”, though rallies “do often slow”.

“Bitcoin’s average three-month return after a weak October is 11%, and after a strong one it is 21%,” he noted. 

Earlier, the analyst known as Crypto Dan forecast the end of the correction and the start of an altcoin rally.

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