IBM debuted the next steps on its roadmap for practical quantum computing on Wednesday, unveiling upgraded processors, software, and fabrication methods that it said will help push the field toward a verified quantum advantage by 2026 and milestones on the way to fault tolerance by 2029.
“Quantum advantage” refers to the point at which a quantum computer performs a task that no traditional computer can match. Fault tolerance is the ability of a quantum computer to keep its performance stable in the face of errors. If IBM’s roadmap holds, then IBM’s Nighthawk processor would mark a crucial step towards a commercially viable quantum computer by the end of the decade.
While IBM’s announcement puts quantum computing a step closer to “Q-Day,” the new processors are still far from a threat to the encryption protecting Bitcoin.
Cracking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with roughly 2,000 logical qubits, which is equivalent to tens of millions of physical qubits once error correction is factored in. The Quantum Nighthawk is a 120-qubit processor designed to handle more complex computations while maintaining low error rates.
Still, Q-Day is coming closer. The first Nighthawk systems are expected to reach users by the end of 2025, with future iterations projected to exceed 1,000 connected qubits by 2028. The chip connects each qubit through 218 tunable couplers, about 20% more than IBM’s previous Heron design in 2023. IBM said the new architecture allows circuits roughly 30% more complex, supporting computations of up to 5,000 two-qubit gates.
The Nighthawk is the next waypoint in IBM’s Starling roadmap, a series of steps announced in July to deliver a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer—IBM Quantum Starling—by 2029. Reaching the goal of manufacturing a scalable quantum computer for industrial use requires significant advancements in modular architecture and error correction, among other advancements anticipated in the Starling build-out.
Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: How Panic Could Break Crypto Before Physics Does
IBM’s announcement followed a wave of renewed investment in quantum computing. In October, Google said its Willow processor achieved a verified quantum speed-up, completing a physics simulation faster than any known classical supercomputer. This result renewed fears over the long-term security of Bitcoin’s encryption.
To support its quantum ambitions, IBM partnered with Algorithmiq, the Flatiron Institute, and BlueQubit to launch a quantum-advantage tracker, an open-source platform for comparing quantum and classical results across benchmark experiments.
