- Bitcoin falls to 102k despite a positive macro backdrop
- US government reopens – US stocks and Gold rise
- BTC institutional demand remains weak
- LTHs sell, adding bearish pressure
- BTC technical analysis
Could a Death Cross Signal Be Positive?
is falling towards $102k as the largest cryptocurrency struggles to recover from the historic October 11 crash. While the price has risen from the $99k low, back above $100k, the upside has been capped.
Other altcoins have experienced a similar pattern, with ’s recovery from $3055 struggling to extend much beyond $3500 while Solana trades at $155, close to 4-month lows.
US Government Reopens
The fundamental backdrop is improving as the US government reopens. The House of Representatives passed a bill, which was signed by President Trump yesterday, ending the longest US government shutdown in history and removing an element of uncertainty from the market.
It’s unclear how quickly data publication will resume, and September’s non-farm payroll report may be the only major report released before the December FOMC meeting. Still, recent private reports have pointed to a clear weakening in the labour market, which would support another rate cut.
US equities are trading higher across the week, with the Dow Jones at record levels. The Nasdaq is up 1.7% week to date. Gold is also heading back up towards record highs, jumping 5% this week. Yet BTC remains out of favour and is unchanged across the week after slumping 7% last week.
Weak Institutional Demand
While institutional demand helped drive BTC to record highs, it has since softened significantly. The Coinbase Bitcoin Index has remained in negative territory across November, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm from US institutional investors.
If the index fails to turn positive with the reopening of the US government, that could be a warning signal for BTC’s recovery.
BTC ETFs show weak institutional demand. BTC ETFs recorded $277 million in net outflows on Wednesday. Although this followed $523.9 million in net inflows on Tuesday, bringing week-to-date ETF flows to $247.1 million, this comes after $2 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks alone. Furthermore, there have been multiple red bars in recent weeks, suggesting that selling has ramped up in the final quarter.
LTHs Sell, Adding to Bearish Pressure.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders are also selling, adding to bearish pressure. According to CryptoQuant, transfers from old Bitcoin wallets (holding BTC for 3-10 years) to Binance rose to the highest level since July. This comes after K33 research noted that almost 400,000 BTC were offloaded by long-term holders over the past month.
These headwinds are capping BTC’s upside. However, the fact that BTC holds above 100k is encouraging. A break below this level could point to further losses.
BTC Technical Analysis
BTC trades in a falling channel dating back to early October. The price faced rejection at 106.5k and has fallen back to test 101k, 50% Fib retracement. The RSI is below 50, supporting further downside.
Sellers will look to break below the 101k and 100k support to extend the downtrend towards 95k.
Could a Death Cross Be Positive?
It’s also worth noting that the 50 SMA is heading to cross below the 200 SMA in a death cross pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
However, if history is anything to go by, the death cross may not be so ominous for BTC. Instead, the indicator appears to lag, often highlighting where the downside has already played out, and can even precede a new uptrend. In 2023, 2024, and early 2025, the death cross patterns were followed by impressive rallies.
Any recovery would need to rise above 106.5k to bring 110k into focus ahead of further gains.
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