00:00 Speaker A
So let’s dig more into crypto specifically. So Bitcoin trading below 100,000 today. You can see just over 96,000 a coin. It is officially in a bear market because it has fallen 20% from its last all-time high in early October. Let’s bring in Ines Ferre here because of course, she’s been watching it not just over the past several days, but all this year for the past several years. And Ines, do we know what is really driving this recent bout of selling?
00:39 Ines Ferre
Well, we know what’s not driving a rally in in crypto right now and that’s very important because on October 10th, you had that liquidation event which spooked investors, but you’ve also had long-term holders, whales that have been selling at the highs and uh they like to buy at the lows and they’re not stepping in. You have ETF outflows. In fact, yesterday you saw the biggest daily outflows of ETFs since their inception. So, what you’re not seeing are marginal buyers and that’s one of the points that 10X research has made that there’s no with no new marginal buyers, you will continue to see this range bound and weakness. And what they’re watching for is a $93,000 level because what they’re saying is is that below that, you are going to hit an air pocket. So, unless you have catalyst uh that would send crypto higher, there doesn’t appear to be. Even Sean Farrell of Funstrat, who is a major bull when it comes to uh Bitcoin and crypto in in general, he has turned in a more cautious tone over the last couple of days because what he’s saying is is that, okay, the liquidity that we’re we’re expecting from the government to reopen, that liquidity won’t be felt for another month or two. The government shutdown was longer than what they had what anybody really had anticipated. So, that tailwind is the timing of these tailwinds matters. And then you have the question of the Fed, which is saying it’s a coin flip. It’s a toss up of whether the Fed is going to cut or not. And you need the Fed to cut in order to be able to support these asset prices going higher. And that’s what strategist across the board are saying is that now the odds around 50/50 if they cut or not, that doesn’t bode well for uh crypto in the near term.
02:40 Speaker A
I mean it’s so I mean it’s so interesting and that’s because there’s this whole debate ongoing about whether uh you know, crypto and Bitcoin specifically is a risk asset, right? Um but it feels like it’s a risk asset. It feels like it’s sort of correlated with what goes on with the Nasdaq. It feels like when there’s a risk off, you got you talked about it yesterday that crypto definitely bears a lot of the brunt of that.
03:00 Ines Ferre
100%. and and you know, strategists talk a lot about when crypto does well, when Bitcoin does well, it also is uh constructive for equities because it tends to front run. And so, uh you have strategists that have been talking on that and but now you’re looking at equities that are doing that are not doing well. So this doesn’t bode well for uh crypto across the board. The other point is also when you when you’re looking at fund managers that have these ETF holdings and the underlying asset is going down, they’re going to get tapped and say, hey, you better, you know, uh trim some of those positions. So, this Christmas rally that uh that investors at Bull have been expecting, it may not come through if the Fed doesn’t become more dovish pretty soon.
