Investor skepticism about the resurgence of Bitcoin could act as a catalyst for prices to recover to $126,000, according to a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost.
A New Phase of Disbelief on the Horizon
“The market might once again be entering a new phase of disbelief, a moment where collective skepticism turns into fuel for recovery.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/0Xv4VGJz87
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 20, 2025
The ‘disbelief phase’ typically emerges after a correction ends, marking the start of a new trend. This investor sentiment is most evident in derivative funding rates, noted Darkfost. Over the past week, six out of seven days on the dominant Binance platform saw negative values.
The analyst attributes this to the massive liquidation on October 11, which severely undermined trader confidence. Since then, they have adopted a bearish strategy, preferring to short rather than risk another correction.
“Paradoxically, the longer this disbelief persists, the stronger the potential for explosive growth becomes. If the current upward trend continues to strengthen, the increasing number of short positions against it could become powerful fuel for the next growth phase,” Darkfost emphasized.
Liquidation of these short positions will push prices up and trigger a short squeeze. In such a scenario, the rally could quickly reach major liquidation zones around $113,000 and possibly near $126,000. Significant order volumes are clustered at these levels, the analyst explained.
According to him, this pattern has played out at least twice in the recent past:
- In September 2024, Bitcoin fell to $54,000 before surpassing $100,000 for the first time;
- In April 2025, the coin’s price initially rose from $85,000 to $111,000, then jumped to $123,000.
Glassnode: Market Structure Remains Fragile
Glassnode experts also noted the cautious sentiment among investors. They estimate that the drop in the leading cryptocurrency from $115,000 to $104,000 last week shook out ‘weak hands’ and triggered a defensive capital rotation.
#Bitcoin dropped from $115K to $104K in just four days, triggering a sharp de-risking across the market.
Since then, $BTC bounced to $111K, but sentiment remains cautious and positioning is still defensive.Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://t.co/RbqduvNciA pic.twitter.com/kUNk3RXzSy
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 20, 2025
Indicators point to persistent selling pressure. The decline in trading volumes on spot platforms and derivatives markets signals reduced confidence and demand.
The rise in the share of short-term holders in the asset’s supply confirms the dominance of speculators, Glassnode added. Against this backdrop, traders are shifting to ‘defensive mode’ and prioritizing capital preservation.
Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin continue, likely from long-term investors with greater confidence, experts noted.
“Overall, the market has rebalanced, protection has been acquired, and positions have shed debt. The rebound from the low is encouraging, but the structure remains fragile. Until confidence is restored, expect the trend to be defined more by caution,” the analysts concluded.
Earlier in October, Glassnode specialists identified a signal of potential Bitcoin growth towards $130,000.
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