Analysts Identify Conditions for Bitcoin’s Rise to $200,000

If the current growth in demand continues, the leading cryptocurrency could reach $160,000-$200,000 by the end of the year, according to analysts at CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin has crossed $117K, reclaiming the Trader’s Realized Price ($116K).

This shift puts BTC back in the BULL phase of the cycle indicator.

From here, Q4 targets expand toward $160K–$200K. pic.twitter.com/FlYePG6kL9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2025

According to their data, since July, spot purchases of Bitcoin have increased by 62,000 BTC per month. This is comparable to the dynamics before previous rallies in the fourth quarters of 2020, 2021, and 2024.

Experts also noted increased demand from whales and exchange-traded funds. Large holders are increasing their exposure at a rate of 331,000 BTC per year, significantly exceeding figures from similar periods in previous years:

238,000 BTC — in the fourth quarter of 2020;
197,000 BTC — 2021;
255,000 BTC — 2024.

During the same period last year, American ETF acquired 213,000 BTC — 71% more than the previous quarter. The current situation suggests a repetition of this dynamic in the coming three months.

Price Target

According to analysts, Bitcoin has successfully surpassed the realized price level for traders at $116,000 and has officially entered the bullish phase of the cycle. After testing this mark and consolidating around $117,300, experts have set a target range for the quarter at $160,000-$200,000.

They emphasized that technical indicators confirm the optimistic scenario. CryptoQuant’s Bull Strength Index was around 40-50 at the end of the third quarter. The same was observed last year when the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose from $70,000 to $100,000.

“These index values mark the transition into the bullish phase of the market cycle,” explained the specialists.

Support comes from three key factors: sustained growth in Bitcoin demand, increased liquidity of stablecoins, and a decrease in unrealized profits for traders. All this “collectively reduces the potential for sales.”

CryptoQuant contributor known as Crypto Dan also noted that the bullish phase of digital gold continues. According to him, there are no clear signals of its end yet.

He pointed to the actions of long-term Bitcoin holders. When the growth cycle nears its peak, this group of investors begins to actively sell the asset — especially coins held for more than a year. Currently, a different picture is observed: the share of “aged” coins is decreasing gradually, hinting at a new growth impulse.