Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin dropped sharply to $98,000, breaching the “line in the sand” at $98,200 and wicking below that level. Failure to reclaim this zone risks a retest of long-term support near $90,500, a level held since 2023. Although an immediate 9% decline would be dire, another 4-hour TBO breakdown on yesterday’s candle underscores the need for a sustained bounce to avert deeper losses.
Ethereum Holds Below Key Resistance
Ethereum underperformed, slipping beneath the $3,435 pivot it has defended all month. As long as ETH trades below the TBO Cloud, the bias remains bearish, a view confirmed by on-balance volume. Until price clears the cloud, further downside pressure is likely to persist.
Market Dominance Trends
Stablecoin dominance climbed back into the “bear market zone,” testing a support fan formed since October 27th. Daily RSI peaked at 68.56 without breaching resistance, suggesting limited upside strength. A drop toward the first fan line near 7.45% will be pivotal for renewed recovery in both Bitcoin and altcoins. Bitcoin Dominance remains in bullish consolidation, but the daily TBO Slow line still slopes downward, indicating a bearish macro trend. Other Dominance also holds bullish consolidation despite last week’s volatility, while TotalE50 and TotalE100 await TBO Fast line touches to close shorts and signal mid- and low-cap rotation. Early TBT bullish divergence warnings on Total3ESBTC and Others/BTC remain intact.
Traditional Markets and Macro Indicators
The US Dollar Index fell into the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but its TBO Slow line is curling upward, marking a shift toward a bullish trend. US equities declined on hawkish Fed commentary and government reopening news: the S&P 500 dropped 1.66%, the Dow fell 1.65%, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 2.05%, printing its first TBO Close Long since February. FANG stocks mirrored this weakness. Tesla gapped down 6.64%, triggered a TBO Close Long, and the VIX surged to 19.99, highlighting renewed market fear. Meanwhile, silver rallies toward $54 as precious metals attract attention.
Altcoin Market Highlights
While the top-10 market cap coins are under pressure from Bitcoin’s weakness, many mid- and lower-cap altcoins remain resilient. ICP battles long-term TBO resistance, QNT broke overhead supply and printed a second TBO Close Short, and Morpho sustains a strong bullish stance above its daily TBO Cloud with OBV back above its moving average. Syrup shows similar strength, TEL pumped over 130% into resistance, and ZEC maintains a bullish structure pending a springboard bounce. New listings like BDXN are posting gains on a broadly red day. Altcoin strength appears increasingly decoupled from Bitcoin, especially among smaller-cap names.
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