Bitcoin has been riding a wave of unpredictability in 2025. After a volatile surge in the early months of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has entered a curious calm. Since May, prices have traded mostly sideways, with neither bulls nor bears taking decisive control.
But beneath the surface of this price stagnation, something massive may be brewing.
Analysts, investors, and crypto enthusiasts are now closely eyeing a $22 trillion catalyst—a figure that could blow the lid off Bitcoin’s current resistance and push it into previously unimaginable territory.
A “Big” July: The Calm Before the Crypto Storm?
President Trump’s recently appointed crypto czar has teased a “big” July for digital assets. And it’s not just rhetoric. Behind the scenes, global financial conditions are aligning to create the kind of environment Bitcoin historically thrives in.
The cryptocurrency has already doubled in price from where it stood in July last year. And according to crypto insiders, the surge may only be getting started.
One reason? Analysts are pointing to the U.S. M2 money supply, which has just reached a historic $22 trillion. This metric—which measures the total liquid cash in the economy, including checking and savings deposits, cash in circulation, and short-term money market funds—has been directly correlated with Bitcoin’s movement over the years.
BlackRock Bombshell and Liquidity Floodgates
Adding to the speculation is an anticipated BlackRock announcement, which many believe could have major implications for institutional crypto investment. Though details remain under wraps, some insiders suggest that BlackRock may be preparing a significant move—possibly involving a new digital asset fund or Bitcoin-backed product aimed at legacy investors.
But the real shockwave may come not from Wall Street innovation—but from the Federal Reserve itself.
According to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares:
“As M2 money supply begins to rise again, history suggests that a portion of this liquidity will flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets.”
His comments underscore a growing belief that more money in the system = more money chasing scarce assets, and Bitcoin—often dubbed “digital gold”—remains the premier scarcity play of our time.
From M2 to BTC: How Trillions Could Drive a $150,000 Price Tag
Bitcoin’s historical price movements have often mirrored expansions in the M2 money supply. When cash floods the system—whether due to stimulus, quantitative easing, or interest rate manipulation—investors typically seek refuge in assets that cannot be inflated or devalued.
And Bitcoin, with its hard cap of 21 million coins, fits the bill perfectly.
Crypto investor and influencer Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, who’s recently announced plans to lead a new Bitcoin acquisition company, put it plainly in an investor memo:
“If Bitcoin continues to follow money supply growth, we could see $150,000 per coin before year end.”
That would represent more than a 2x gain from current levels—and a historic high even by Bitcoin’s dramatic standards.
The Fed’s Dilemma: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Political Pressure
All of this comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope. While inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, rising tariffs and political pressure have made aggressive rate hikes a risky move.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently addressed the issue during a global economic panel:
“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs,” Powell said, referring to the Trump administration’s Liberation Day trade tariffs, which disrupted global trade and drove inflation higher.
Despite the inflation spike, Powell signaled a deliberate wait-and-see approach:
“We didn’t overreact. In fact, we didn’t react at all. We’re simply taking some time.”
This inaction has led to a continued rise in M2, as liquidity remains abundant while interest rates stay relatively stable. For investors, it means cheap money is still circulating, and some of it is inevitably flowing into risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
why This Time Feels Different
While Bitcoin has experienced booms before, analysts suggest that this cycle carries a unique macro backdrop:
Institutional acceptance is rising, with asset managers like Fidelity and BlackRock laying the groundwork for broader adoption.
Retail investors are returning cautiously, but enthusiastically, after the 2022-2023 crypto winter.
Geopolitical instability and shifting global alliances are encouraging hedge strategies against traditional currencies.
Scarcity psychology is deepening as more coins are held long-term or locked in institutional vaults.
Still, Not Everyone Is Bullish
Some economists warn that the Fed’s loose grip on liquidity may have unintended consequences beyond Bitcoin. The same forces that push Bitcoin higher—such as excess cash, speculative fervor, and policy uncertainty—could also ignite asset bubbles or currency imbalances in global markets.
According to David Morrison, senior analyst at Trade Nation:
“It’s clear that the Fed expects inflation to continue above target. That being the case, it sounds as if the Fed will only cut rates if the U.S. employment situation deteriorates significantly.”
In other words, unless the job market crashes, we may not see meaningful Fed intervention. That means M2 could continue climbing, inflating assets like Bitcoin while average Americans continue battling high living costs.
What to Watch in July and Beyond
With so much riding on money supply trends, investors are now closely watching July developments:
Will BlackRock unveil its rumored crypto product?
Will the Fed’s tone change in upcoming policy statements?
Will political pressure push for further tariffs or rate adjustments?
Will institutional buyers start accumulating again in large volumes?
Each of these could send ripples—or tidal waves—through the crypto market.
Final Thoughts: The $22 Trillion Signal
Whether you’re a seasoned crypto investor or just watching from the sidelines, the numbers don’t lie.
The U.S. M2 money supply hitting $22 trillion isn’t just a statistic—it’s a flashing signal that liquidity is back, and Bitcoin may be poised for another breakout.
If history is any indication, the crypto market doesn’t stay quiet for long.
And when the storm comes, those who positioned e
arly might just ride the wave to new all-time highs.
