Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast: Will BTC Break $123K? ETF Flows and Fed Policy in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast: Will BTC Break 3K? ETF Flows and Fed Policy in Focus


  • iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net outflows of $615 million, the first since April 2025.
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $235.3 million.
  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $182.3 million.

In total, seven spot ETF issuers reported net outflows in the week, leading to total weekly net outflows of $1.179 billion. Crucially, a six-day outflow streak left the BTC-spot ETF market with a $1.19 billion deficit for August, weighing on BTC demand.

ETH Falls Short of $5,000 as ETF Outflows Bite

While the US BTC-spot ETF market weighed on BTC, weekly ETH-spot ETF outflows left Ethereum (ETH) below $5,000. ETH dropped 1.08% on Saturday, August 23, partially reversing the previous day’s 14.31% surge to close at $4,779. Notably, ETH struck a new all-time high of $4,890 on August 22 before easing back.

While the US ETH-spot ETF market reported net inflows on August 22, weekly net outflows of $241.1 million weighed on ETH. Despite weekly outflows, the ETH-spot ETF market continued outmuscling the BTC-spot ETF market in August. President of Nova Dius Wealth, Nate Geraci, remarked:

“Spot ETH ETFs w/ $340mil inflows yesterday… So far in August: Spot eth ETFs = $2.8bil inflows. Spot btc ETFs = $1.2bil outflows. Since beginning of July: Spot eth ETFs = $8.2bil inflows. Spot btc ETFs = $4.2bil inflows. Notable recent shift.”

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:



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