Softer wage growth, a drop in nonfarm payrolls, and rising unemployment may fuel speculation about aggressive Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path would likely drive demand for spot ETFs and BTC. On the other hand, upbeat labor market data may temper bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, potentially weighing on sentiment.
Beyond Capitol Hill and the data, Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members’ speeches, along with the meeting minutes, will be in the spotlight. Growing backing for policy easing to bolster the labor market and economy could send BTC to new highs.
Bitcoin’s breakout week also boosted demand for Ethereum (ETH).
ETH Breaks Above $4,500 Spot-ETH Demand Rebounds
While BTC struck new highs, ETH reclaimed the crucial $4,500 level as institutional demand rebounded.
ETH rallied 10.3% this week, reversing the previous week’s 6.86% loss. US ETH-spot ETF issuers reported net inflows of $1.3 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, October 3, after the previous week’s outflows of $0.8 billion.
Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.
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Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook
Several key events will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:
- Senate votes on stopgap funding bill.
- US economic data.
- FOMC members’ speeches.
- Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s passage on Capitol Hill.
- US BTC-spot ETF flows.
BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: An extended US government shutdown, weaker US data, dovish Fed signals, bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC toward $130,000.
- Bearish Scenario: US government reopens, rising US stagflation fears, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows. These factors could push BTC toward $115,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC trades above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling bullish momentum.
- Upside Target: A breakout above $125,000 could enable the bulls to target $130,000. A sustained move through $130,000 may pave the way toward $150,000.
- On the downside, a drop below $120,000 could expose the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key technical support level.
