Bitcoin’s recent price action has shown a mixed picture, with the cryptocurrency trading near $118,000 as it consolidates following sharp fluctuations around $124,000 [1]. The Age Cohort Concentration Index (HHI) has been on a steady decline since April, signaling growing participation across various holder groups [2]. This shift is seen as a positive sign by analysts, who argue that price gains supported by broad cohort participation tend to be more sustainable than those driven by a single group [2].
However, the market remains under pressure from weakening on-chain activity. Network growth and transaction counts have declined significantly, with on-chain activity hitting 76.8k and 81.7k respectively in mid-August [3]. This reduction raises concerns about the sustainability of the current rally, as it suggests fewer new participants and a cooling of demand [3].
Technical indicators also reflect a cautious stance. Bitcoin has remained within an ascending channel since April, with recent rebounds near $117,000 and tests at the $124,000 resistance level drawing significant attention [2]. The 9-day and 21-day moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, while the MACD shows positive momentum. Nevertheless, repeated rejections at the upper boundary highlight the presence of active sellers, and a decisive breakout is yet to materialize [2].
The Long/Short Ratio on Binance further underscores the market’s uneven positioning, with longs at 57.34% versus shorts at 42.66% [4]. While this indicates growing optimism among retail and derivatives traders, it also raises the risk of sharp corrections should overconfidence take hold. Short sellers, despite being in the minority, still retain significant influence, tempering overly bullish sentiment [4].
Another notable development is the shift in holder behavior. Realized Cap HODL Waves data reveals that the share of coins held for 1–7 days has risen to 3.93%, up from lows below 2.5% earlier this month [3]. Conversely, the 7–30 day cohort has declined to 8.70%, indicating that mid-term holders are reducing their exposure. This shift reflects stronger short-term conviction and speculative inflows, though it also points to the fragility of the current rally [3].
The recent drop in Bitcoin trading volume by 28% has added another layer of caution [5]. Analysts note that the decline in Bitcoin’s dominance and signs of capital shifting to altcoins suggest that the broader market may be preparing for a new phase [5]. Additionally, the Binance Long/Short Ratio and Bitcoin’s resistance at $124,000 remain key focal points for traders and investors alike [4].
For the bulls, reclaiming $123,217 and closing above $124,000 would be critical for signaling renewed momentum and potentially opening the path toward $125,000 [6]. However, the sustainability of the current rally may depend on whether mid-term accumulation continues and whether new network growth can be reinvigorated [2].
Source:
[1] title: Bitcoin Price Drops After Rejection At Key Supply Zone (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/15/bitcoin-price-drops-after-rejection-at-key-supply-zone/)
[2] title: Bitcoin: This KEY BTC index drops! – What bulls should watch (https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-this-key-btc-index-falls-what-bulls-should-watch/)
[3] title: Bitcoin drops 0.59% after repeated rejections at … (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-drops-0-59-repeated-rejections-120-000-supply-zone-2508/)
[5] title: [Analysis] “Bitcoin trading volume drops by 28%… Growing … (https://bloomingbit.io/en/feed/news/94996)
[6] title: Bitcoin STH SOPR-7d Signals Healthy Demand (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1043915-20250815)
