Bitcoin fell below $116,000 for the first time in weeks on August 7, 2025, trading at $115,965.203125. This marked a 1.27% drop over the previous 24 hours [2]. The decline has raised concerns among traders and analysts about whether the $116,000 level can hold, especially in the context of broader market uncertainty [2].
Earlier in the month, Bitcoin failed to maintain its position above $124,000, triggering a bearish outlook for the short term [4]. A further drop below $116,500 with elevated trading volume could signal continued downward momentum toward the $114,000–$111,000 range [4]. On August 14, Bitcoin also dipped below $117,000, a 6% pullback marked by a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart—a technical formation often associated with a trend reversal [2].
Despite the recent decline, on-chain data suggests continued investor interest. The Coinbase Premium Index and the Kimchi Premium both hit monthly highs, reflecting strong demand from U.S. and South Korean markets [2]. Short-term holder liquidations have remained relatively low, with only 16,800 BTC at risk, significantly lower than the 48,000 BTC seen during previous corrections [2]. This indicates a more measured response from traders rather than panic selling.
The market is also influenced by seasonal concerns. The “Ghost Month”—a period from August 23 to September 21—has historically seen an average 21.7% price decline since 2017, including significant drops of -39.8% in 2017 and -23% in 2021 [2]. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could face renewed pressure, testing the $100,000 to $105,000 range [2]. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting that a summer correction could create a stronger foundation for a rebound in the fourth quarter, especially with potential increases in institutional buying [2].
From a technical perspective, the $116,000–$117,000 range remains critical. Both spot and futures buying are concentrated in this area, and a successful defense could lead to renewed upward momentum [2]. A deeper pullback during the Ghost Month, however, may confirm a more significant test around $100,000 [2]. The relative strength index (RSI) has shown signs of a rare bullish “W” pattern, which some analysts interpret as an indicator that the current bull trend is not yet exhausted [7].
The market remains in a delicate balance, showing both resilience and vulnerability as the potential for a seasonal correction looms. If the Ghost Month extends the decline, it may create long-term accumulation opportunities for investors [2]. According to data from Coinglass, a sustained drop below $116,000 could trigger significant liquidation events for long positions on major exchanges [6]. The ongoing interaction between psychological and technical factors continues to shape Bitcoin’s volatility.
Sources:
[1] Binance, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/28463026101074
[2] AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-slides-6-117-000-ghost-month-concerns-loom-2508/
[4] Bitcoin.com, https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-watch-rejection-from-124k-sparks-short-term-bearish-outlook/
[6] Binance, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/08-16-2025-bitcoin-price-movements-could-trigger-significant-liquidation-events-28387540884538
[7] CryptoDnes.bg, https://cryptodnes.bg/en/analizi/analyst-says-bitcoins-rsi-forming-rare-bullish-w-setup/
