Market analysts are pushing back against the growing belief that Bitcoin could reach a major peak in November 2025, arguing that the current market cycle is far from reaching its climax. Quinten Francois, a well-known commentator in the cryptocurrency space, has drawn on historical patterns to challenge the idea that a blow-off top is imminent. He emphasized that the 9-12 month retail investment cycle—which typically drives market euphoria and speculative buying—has not yet fully taken shape [1].
Francois highlighted how previous bull cycles in 2017 and 2021 followed a similar trajectory, with the so-called “altseason”—a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin—beginning in early January of each cycle. From that point, it took roughly 9 to 12 months for the cycle to reach its peak. In the current cycle, altseason has not yet begun in earnest, as evidenced by the ETH/BTC ratio, which is only starting to show signs of reversal. According to the analyst, the market is still in the early stages, meaning a full peak is unlikely to occur before the second or third quarter of 2026 [2].
The argument centers on the psychological and behavioral patterns of retail investors. The cycle is not driven by linear trends or fundamental analysis, but by a shift in sentiment and participation. As soon as altseason begins, broader retail buying tends to follow, which prolongs the cycle. This pattern has historically extended the timeline for a peak, making the November 2025 expectation premature [3].
Francois acknowledged that the only scenario where a 2025 peak could materialize would be if the altcoin cycle were to skip entirely or if an unexpected black swan event disrupted the usual flow. However, both scenarios are considered unlikely based on current conditions. “If things unfold as they historically have (we can only count on this), then it’s just not going to happen,” he stated on the social media platform X [4].
While Francois did not provide a specific price target for Bitcoin’s eventual peak, other analysts have suggested potential levels between $140,000 and $200,000. He noted that the current price action represents one of the most bullish setups in Bitcoin’s history, particularly with the retest of an ascending trendline that was previously broken in July. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% over the previous seven days [5].
The discussion underscores the importance of distinguishing between retail-driven market behavior and the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s value. While historical retail cycles can offer insights into investor psychology, they should not be treated as definitive indicators of price movements. The cryptocurrency market remains influenced by a range of unpredictable factors, including macroeconomic shifts, regulatory developments, and technological progress [6].
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Source: [1] Market Expert Debunks Possible Bitcoin Top In November Using 9-12 Months Retail Cycle (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-top-in-november/)
[2] Market Expert Debunks Possible Bitcoin Top In November Using 9-12 Months Retail Cycle (https://www.spaceweather.com/)
