Bitcoin declined again, but this time the market turmoil was not caused by leverage collapse. Entities categorized as ‘super whales,’ holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins, have been selling off, with Bitcoin’s maximum drop reaching 7.4%.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Bitcoin fell again. However, this time the market turbulence was not triggered by a leverage collapse; instead, entities categorized as “super whales,” holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins, have been selling off their holdings. The largest decline in Bitcoin reached 7.4%, breaking below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June. Compared to its all-time high set just a month ago, its decline has exceeded 20%. During early Asian trading on Wednesday, Bitcoin recovered some losses but still failed to stabilize. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $101,800.
Unlike the chain liquidations seen during the October crash, this decline has been driven by continued sell-offs in the spot market. This contrasts with patterns familiar to cryptocurrency traders—where sudden market volatility was typically triggered by liquidations in the futures market.
Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, stated that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoins over the past month, equivalent to an outflow of $45 billion, causing an imbalance in market supply and demand.
Data from CoinGlass shows that around $2 billion worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. In contrast, forced liquidations during the October collapse totaled $19 billion, making this scale relatively modest. Bitcoin futures open interest remains low, while options traders are betting on further price declines by executing put option contracts with a target price of $80,000.
Given the relatively moderate levels of leverage, market attention has shifted towards long-term holders choosing to sell.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, noted: “Over the past month, more than 319,000 Bitcoins have been reactivated, primarily those held for 6 to 12 months—indicating significant profit-taking since mid-July. Some reactivation is due to internal transfers, but much of it reflects genuine selling behavior.”
Thielen explained that if the October crash was caused by forced selling, this pullback may reflect a more concerning situation: waning market confidence. The imbalance between continuous selling by long-term holders and insufficient new buyer inflows is not only affecting market sentiment but also beginning to dominate market direction.
Earlier this year, Thielen observed that entities classified as “super whales,” holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins, had begun large-scale sell-offs, even as institutional investors attempted to absorb the selling pressure. This also explains Bitcoin’s volatile sideways movement during the summer. However, Thielen pointed out that overall demand has significantly contracted since the October 10 crash. “We have broken below certain on-chain metrics—many investors are holding losing positions and have been forced to exit.”
Overall, the scale of accumulation by investors holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins has significantly declined. ‘The whales are simply not buying,’ Tilleyn remarked.
Looking ahead, Tilleyn warned that this sell-off could persist until next spring. During the 2021-2022 bear market, large holders sold over 1 million bitcoins in nearly a year, and Tilleyn believes a similar-scale sell-off may recur. ‘If the current pace holds, this situation could last another six months.’
He did not predict a catastrophic collapse but believed there was still room for further declines. ‘I am not superstitious about market cycles, but I think the market may consolidate with volatility going forward, or even experience a minor additional decline. My maximum downside target is $85,000.’
