Fickle prediction market users went from bullish to bearish in the last few weeks as crypto prices dipped and demand stagnated. But after consecutive green days following the U.S. government shutdown, predictors are once more leaning bullish.
That’s once more led to notable swings in Myriad’s most traded prediction markets involving Bitcoin and Solana.
Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)
Market Open: July 10
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $379K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next hit: Moon to $125K or dip to $105K” market on Myriad
Bitcoin got within $872 of hitting $125,000 on August 14, sending odds for this popular market to hit 94% in favor of “$125,000.”
But the brief euphoria that had predictors nearly certain of a move to $125,000 soon faded. By August 29, odds of $125,000 shrunk to 25.2% as bears took control.
Now, as the top crypto asset reclaimed $120,000 on Thursday, predictors have once more found their bullish streak. Odds of mooning to $125,000 have jumped by more than 50% in the last two days, drastically swinging from as low as 28% to its current standing of 81% as of Thursday afternoon.
Maybe it’s “Uptober.” Historically a strong month for Bitcoin, BTC has been green in nine of the last ten Octobers, adding fuel to the meme that another strong month is pre-ordained for the market.
Bitcoin Soars Above $120K as US Government Shutdown Continues
While analysts told Decrypt this week that macro traders aren’t likely to trade solely based on calendars, increasing odds of rate cuts and strong ETF inflows are creating conditions that support the move upward.
Will it be enough to create a new all-time high at $125,000?
What’s Next? Thanks to a nearly 11% gain this week, BTC sits just 2.6% off its all-time high and 3.47% from $125,000.
Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $105K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will Polymarket announce a token this year?” market on Myriad
Prediction market headlines have been abundant throughout the last year, as the use case becomes one of crypto’s most important consumer breakthroughs.
And now, one of the leading prediction markets, Polymarket, is expected to make its return to U.S. markets.
Regulatory filings show that the market could be open to U.S. residents as soon as Thursday, four years after it was banned by the CFTC. Though its return does not signal any intent to launch a token, earlier reports suggested the prediction market is mulling a potential token launch.