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In recent days, Barclays downgraded Gartner from Overweight to Equal-Weight due to concerns about weakening contract growth, downward revisions in earnings and revenue estimates, and the potential disruption of its research model by generative AI tools. Hedge fund holdings in Gartner have also declined, and investor confidence appears to be waning as challenges related to AI commoditization and profit expectations come into sharper focus.
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Rising scrutiny on Gartner’s business model highlights the impact of AI-driven disruption, prompting questions about the company’s future resilience and competitive positioning in the research industry.
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We’ll explore how analyst doubts around generative AI’s impact on Gartner’s subscription model could influence the company’s investment narrative.
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To feel confident as a Gartner shareholder, you need to believe the company can defend and adapt its high-value subscription research business amid rapid generative AI adoption, which now threatens to undermine both contract and earnings growth. Recent analyst downgrades and declining hedge fund holdings have brought the risk of AI-driven disruption and commoditization to the forefront, directly challenging Gartner’s near-term catalyst of subscription renewals, making this news event material to short-term expectations.
Against this backdrop, Gartner’s announcement of upcoming third-quarter earnings, scheduled for November 4, 2025, becomes particularly relevant. Investors are likely to focus on any signals about subscription value trends, contract renewals, and management commentary on the impact of generative AI tools, as these will speak directly to both current risks and evolving catalysts in Gartner’s business model.
However, unlike prior quarters, investors need to be aware of the growing risk that Gartner’s core research value proposition could be eroded by new AI-powered tools…
Read the full narrative on Gartner (it’s free!)
Gartner’s narrative projects $7.4 billion revenue and $821.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.7% yearly revenue growth and a $478.2 million earnings decrease from $1.3 billion today.
Uncover how Gartner’s forecasts yield a $295.55 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.
Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$241.68 to US$295.55 based on 2 independent analyses. With the risk of AI-driven disruption in focus, it’s clear that market participants view the company’s future from very different angles, explore several viewpoints to get the full picture.
