The cryptocurrency market got off to a poor start in November, with the leading cryptocurrency$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$and$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$experiencing significant declines, further pressuring market confidence. Will Bitcoin continue to fall? Here’s a summary of analysts’ latest views.
Amid diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials on whether to cut rates again in December, the US dollar has strengthened recently while cryptocurrencies have continued their decline, triggering forced liquidations. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark, and if measured from its yearly high of $124,714, it has plummeted nearly 17%. The market is now focusing on key support levels below $100,000.
Market analysts pointed out that a hacker attack on Balancer, a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol within the Ethereum ecosystem, resulted in losses potentially exceeding $100 million, exacerbating panic in the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials suggested that another rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion, causing investor sentiment to shift significantly toward defensive positioning. Although the new market structure—characterized by spot ETFs, large institutional accounts, and long-term savings wallets absorbing supply—differs from previous cycles and has slightly reduced volatility, ‘resilience does not equate to reversal.’ Until there are positive changes in the macro environment, a rebound remains uncertain.
Breaking below key technical support levels suggests further downside potential.
Katie Stockton, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, stated that Bitcoin has fallen below a crucial technical support level—the 200-day moving average at $109,800—indicating additional downward pressure ahead.
Stockton noted, “From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s correction phase is likely to persist for several more weeks.” The next support level for Bitcoin is around $94,200. However, she emphasized that Bitcoin’s long-term momentum remains positive. Once the technical correction phase concludes, Bitcoin’s long-term price target could reach $134,500.
Demand is lower than the rate of new coin mining.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted that his bullish expectations have weakened as institutional accumulation slows. For the first time in seven months, institutional demand for Bitcoin has fallen below the rate of new coin issuance, signaling a possible retreat by large buyers and prompting the broader cryptocurrency market to adopt a risk-off tone. He remarked, “For the first time in seven months, institutional net buying has dropped below the daily mining supply—a concerning development.”
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, highlighted in a report that despite recent U.S. interest rate cuts, cryptocurrency investment products recorded a net outflow of $360 million last week. The hawkish stance indicated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who suggested that another rate cut in December is ‘not a done deal,’ compounded by the absence of key economic data releases, has left investors in a wait-and-see mode.
Capital flows are returning from the cryptocurrency market to the stock market.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux pointed out that liquidity is shifting back to the stock market, driven by artificial intelligence and fintech. Wall Street is bracing for another surge propelled by liquidity and infrastructure investments, while the cryptocurrency market continues to search for a genuine bottom.
QCP Capital, another Singapore-based crypto trading firm, argued that the recent pullback is unrelated to macroeconomic factors but rather stems from profit-taking by Bitcoin’s “OGs” (long-term holders) after an extended rally. Significant amounts of Bitcoin were transferred to exchanges such as Kraken. On-chain data shows that approximately 405,000 long-held Bitcoins were moved over the past month, yet the price remained firmly above $100,000. QCP stated that the market absorbed this selling pressure without breaching key support levels, adding that current leverage levels are low and funding rates remain stable.
Large institutions actively manage their exposure.
The latest data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that institutional demand for Bitcoin has significantly slowed, contrasting sharply with the growing optimism in traditional markets led by the technology and infrastructure sectors. Over the past three weeks, Blackrock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has seen weekly net inflows of less than 600 Bitcoins. In contrast, during previous major rallies in this cycle, weekly inflows exceeded 10,000 Bitcoins, marking a substantial decline from earlier levels.
Glassnode analysts noted that this signals a noticeable slowdown in institutional demand, representing one of the weakest periods of institutional accumulation since the ETF’s launch. Data suggests that after months of aggressive accumulation, large investors may now be entering a consolidation phase.
Cryptocurrency data platform Whale Insider reported that Blackrock has transferred funds to a cryptocurrency exchange.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$A transfer of 1,198 bitcoins, valued at approximately $129 million, has been executed. This operation may indicate that the institution is adjusting its investment portfolio or making custody reallocations. Such transfer activities do not necessarily represent selling behavior, but this phenomenon underscores that, amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment, large asset management firms are actively managing their cryptocurrency exposure. As market liquidity and demand fluctuate, ETF issuers often rebalance or consolidate holdings across different custodians.
Editor/Rocky
