(Kitco News) Bitcoin’s retracement from its October record is forcing investors to reconsider who truly drives the crypto market, according to Ran Neuner. Speaking with Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron in late November, the Founder and Host of Crypto Banter said 2025 should be viewed as a transition year in which retail behaviour and corporate treasury premiums gave way to institutional control.
The Lost Year
Neuner admitted that 2025 wasn’t a bull market year for crypto, despite a halving event and a newly pro-crypto administration; the market did not follow the typical post-halving pattern. He added that Bitcoin is still up more than 250% since 2023, but investors are “reading the data at the bottom of a correction” rather than stepping back to view the longer trend.
Corporate Treasury Unwind and the October Event
Neuner reminded Kitco viewers that in July, he warned about corporate treasury equities trading at premiums far above their net asset values, voicing his concerns “about the corporate treasury companies that were trading at above their net asset values.” He continued, “If the trend continues for a long period of time, then we could get into a situation where they actually destroy the cycle.”
Those premiums collapsed quickly, and many now trade below the value of the Bitcoin they hold. Neuner believes this has created opportunities. “If you can pick up something like that at 30-50% of net asset value and you are a long-term value investor, that is actually a very good entry.”
The shift followed the October 10 liquidation cascade, which erased around $20 billion in leveraged positions. “The market started to sell off, and it sold off worse than the Trump tariff correction weekend,” Neuner said, adding that at the time “we were all confused as to why this happened.”
A Strategic Rotation, Not an Organic Crash
A clearer pattern emerged as information surfaced, including margin hikes on treasury-linked equities in July, new bank product filings in October and renewed index warnings in November, which all appeared during periods of maximum market stress. The alignment raised questions about whether institutions were positioning for control of the Bitcoin trade.
Neuner did not accuse banks of coordination, but he pointed to the timing, commenting, “When you are dealing with Bitcoin, which is a manageable asset, they know where the liquidity is.” He added that if large institutions wanted exposure, a lower entry price would benefit them. “They needed Bitcoin to go down to capture the trade. Now they are in the trade, and the right side of the trade now is the up trade.”
MSCI’s Index Warning
The October drop gained further context after investors discovered that MSCI published a consultation at 20:34 GMT on October 10 proposing to exclude companies whose digital assets exceed 50% of their total assets. The consultation closes on December 31, with a decision expected on January 15.
The implications are significant, with JPMorgan estimating that up to $9 billion could flow out of MicroStrategy if the exclusions take effect. Neuner noted that this would pressure equities tied to digital assets, but not Bitcoin itself, and that it could even lead to a more balanced distribution of Bitcoin ownership over time.
Tether and Liquidity Conditions
Neuner also pushed back on S&P Global’s downgrade of Tether, arguing the agency overlooked the company’s reserve strength. He noted that Tether is “4% over collateralised,” and holds a mix of treasuries, physical gold and Bitcoin, a profile he said more closely resembles a blue-chip balance sheet than a weak one.
He believes improving liquidity will help restore momentum into 2026. “Those are the conditions where Bitcoin actually loves,” referring to rising liquidity, a stabilising Treasury General Account and the end of quantitative tightening.
Silver, Gold and the Risk Curve
On metals, Neuner believes the market is sending its own signal, with Gold hitting record highs, and silver now showing what he views as a major technical breakout. “Silver is always the riskier beta to gold,” he said, pointing to a long, multidecade cup and handle formation that he believes has now broken to the upside. “I am more overweight silver than I am gold, and I am more overweight Bitcoin than I am silver,” he said. This rotation reflects his expectation that investors will increasingly seek higher beta assets as liquidity improves.
Looking Forward to 2026
Neuner expects 2026 to be a more decisive year for crypto if liquidity conditions strengthen. He believes Bitcoin could still finish the current year closer to $100,000 to $120,000 if the market avoids another shock. “I think 2026 is going to be a bull market,” he said. “I think this is a great time to be buying.”
Watch the full interview with Ran Neuner for his detailed analysis of the October 10 event, the MSCI timeline and his rotation strategy for 2026.
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