FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that October has been regarded as a “lucky month” for the cryptocurrency market over the past seven years. However, this year, Bitcoin broke this myth – the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell nearly 5% in October, marking its first monthly decline since 2018. This was attributed to rising market risk aversion, uncertainty in global monetary policy direction, and the sudden impact of U.S. tariff policies.
Data shows that Bitcoin fell approximately 4.9% in October, with its monthly performance showing a rare weakening. Between October 10 and 11, the price of Bitcoin dropped to USD 104,782.88, retreating more than 17% from its recent all-time high of USD 126,000.
(Bitcoin Daily Chart, Source: FX168)
Market analysts noted that this plunge was accompanied by large-scale contract liquidations, making it one of the largest monthly clearing events in cryptocurrency history.
Midway through this month, U.S. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China and threatened to expand export controls to include key software products.
This unexpected policy shock triggered a global sell-off of risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market being hit the hardest.
Adam McCarthy, Senior Analyst at Kaiko, pointed out, “At the beginning of October, Bitcoin and Ethereum moved highly in sync with gold and stock markets. However, when market panic escalated, investors did not pivot back to Bitcoin as a safe haven, indicating a significant change in this year’s market structure.”
McCarthy added, “The crash on October 10 served as a wake-up call for investors – the cryptocurrency market remains narrow, and even mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum can drop 10% within 15 to 20 minutes.”
Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, also stated that investors remain vigilant about potential systemic vulnerabilities. “Record-breaking liquidation volumes indicate that caution continues to dominate the market.”
In addition to the cryptocurrency market, macroeconomic uncertainties are also amplifying volatility. Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the Federal Reserve lacks critical inflation and employment data support. Recently, Chairman Powell emphasized that “further interest rate cuts this year remain undecided,” shaking market expectations.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned this month that U.S. stocks could experience a “significant correction” within the next six months to two years, further dampening market risk appetite.
Despite poor performance in October, Bitcoin has risen more than 16% year-to-date.
Analysts believe that the recent relaxation of regulatory attitudes toward the cryptocurrency industry by the U.S. government — including the withdrawal of lawsuits against several major trading platforms and the Trump administration’s push to establish a specialized regulatory framework for digital assets — has provided long-term support for the market.
The end of Bitcoin’s “October curse” not only reflects the intensification of structural volatility in the cryptocurrency market but also underscores the significant impact of changes in macroeconomic policy. Amidst intertwined geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainties, investors are reassessing the safe-haven attributes of this high-risk asset.
