Written by Anthony Pompliano, Founder of Professional Capital Management; Compiled by AiMan @金色财经
Bitcoin recently experienced a historic rise. BTC has broken new highs at $0.12 million.
As our friend at Geiger Capital said:”candle chartInsanity. It’s a price discovery.” This is exactly how price discovery works. Bitcoin’s price will be repriced higher and higher until net new buyers run out.
So, how high can Bitcoin rise during this price discovery process?
As you can see from the chart, as early as November 2024, Bitcoin rose from 0.07 million dollars to 0.09 million dollars in just a few weeks after breaking through an all-time high.
If Bitcoin also experiences a similar 30% breakthrough, then in the next two weeks or so, its price will reach $0.14 million.
I’m not predicting that Bitcoin will reach $0.14 million any time soon. I’m just showing you what happened the last time Bitcoin was in a similar price discovery phase.
This brings us to another question —
What caused Bitcoin to eventually break through the previous range between $0.1 million and $0.11 million?
The answer might be a bit complicated.
Reason 1: Bitcoin ETFs saw significant Inflow in early July
Barchart notes that last Thursday was the second-highest overall Bitcoin ETF Inflow day.
Bitcoin ETFs have Inflow of over $1.2 billion in a single day, which is unbelievable. It’s hard to explain how successful the launch of a Bitcoin ETF was for Wall Street.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas (Eric Balchunas) did his best to use charts to show the dominant position of BlackRock’s IBIT Funds. Eric wrote, “Last night, the IBIT Funds surpassed the $80 billion mark, making it the fastest ETF in history. It took 374 days, about 5 times faster than the previous record (VOO maintained, took 1,814 days). Furthermore, the IBIT fund reached $83 billion and is currently the 21st largest ETF in the world.”
Continuing to explain the collective success of Bitcoin ETFs, Eric said, “The total assets of all spot Bitcoin ETFs have also surpassed $140 billion for the first time.” For a product that was around 18 months old, these numbers are pretty amazing.
Reason 2: Bitcoin options for the second quarter also expire at the end of June
As Jordi Visser told me on our podcast every Saturday: “At the end of every quarter, there are lots of open contracts selling future products… Volatility is compressed. Bitcoin’s volatility is below 40, so I think the selling pressure will lessen once it expires.”
Therefore, you can’t overlook the importance of options expiring a few days before Bitcoin breaks through. But that’s not the whole story either.
Reason 3: Large numbers of bears are being squeezed
Jody went on to explain that bears have accumulated positions and are being squeezed, which reinforces the rise in prices. He told me: “Near the previous all-time high, the $0.11 million to $0.12 million area has accumulated a large number of short positions.”
Now that makes more sense. A series of events intertwined. Bitcoin ETF Inflow are close to the highest level in history. Bitcoin options have just expired, and bears have become so complacent that they are liquidated as the price rises.
Bitcoin is the new lowest yield, you must buy it if you can’t beat it
It doesn’t matter how high it rises in the short term. The professional investment community has finally realized that Bitcoin isn’t going away. These institutions and individuals will continue to push the price of Bitcoin higher for years to come. There will be lots of fluctuations along the way, including a bear market. But there’s no doubt about it — Wall Street is surrendering.
They’re raising a white flag. No one wants to ignore, hit, or laugh at Bitcoin anymore. They all want to buy it and hold it. If they can’t find a way to surpass Bitcoin, what else can they do? I’ve emphasized over and over… Bitcoin is the new minimum yield. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.
Wall Street is finally listening.
