Why Paycom’s (PAYC) AI Investment Strategy Raises New Questions After Third-Quarter Earnings Miss

Why Paycom’s (PAYC) AI Investment Strategy Raises New Questions After Third-Quarter Earnings Miss


  • Earlier this week, Paycom Software reported its third-quarter earnings, highlighting revenue of US$493.3 million, adjusted earnings per share of US$1.94, and the launch of its AI-driven product ‘IWant,’ while maintaining full-year guidance and announcing a quarterly dividend of US$0.375 per share.

  • An interesting aspect of the recent updates is Paycom’s ongoing focus on AI innovation, underscored by a US$100 million investment in data centers to support AI capabilities and expanded client engagement with automation.

  • We’ll now examine how the third-quarter earnings miss and continued AI investment shape Paycom Software’s investment outlook.

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To believe in Paycom Software as a shareholder today, you need confidence in its ability to convert ongoing AI innovation, especially the rollout of ‘IWant’, into stronger client engagement, revenue retention, and expanded margins, even as industry competition heats up. Recent Q3 results show robust recurring revenue growth and significant AI investment, but the modest earnings miss and a softer near-term outlook have not materially changed the primary catalyst of platform adoption, or the biggest risk of margin pressure from rising costs and commoditization.

Among recent announcements, the new multi-year partnership with the Sacramento Kings stands out, placing Paycom’s platform in a high-visibility client and supporting the story that large organizations are increasingly adopting AI-powered HR automation, a key driver for both short-term performance and investment catalysts moving forward.

However, investors should be aware, despite headline growth, ongoing automation in HR software could make Paycom’s key AI features less differentiated if…

Read the full narrative on Paycom Software (it’s free!)

Paycom Software’s narrative projects $2.5 billion revenue and $586.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.1% yearly revenue growth and an increase of $170.8 million in earnings from $415.7 million.

Uncover how Paycom Software’s forecasts yield a $242.75 fair value, a 50% upside to its current price.

PAYC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
PAYC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Five Simply Wall St Community value estimates for Paycom land between US$226.28 and US$385.20 per share, reflecting wide-ranging outlooks. With intensifying competition challenging Paycom’s ability to maintain margin expansion, see how different investors weigh these shifting headwinds for future performance.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Paycom Software – why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include PAYC.

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